Forecasting Avalanche Danger for the Country’s Most Treacherous Snowpack


Benjamin Rasmussen


To understand what’s happening at the top of a snow-covered mountain, you have to dig. Granular analysis of snowflakes can tell local ski resorts and government agencies which layers of snow are destined for collapse. But that process isn’t exactly scalable. “We can’t dig snow pits every 100 feet over the whole state,” says John Snook, who scrutinized snowflakes for eight years as a forecaster for the Colorado Avalanche Information Center. In his new role as technical consultant, he aims to create the first-ever computer model of the state’s backcountry snowpack, combining topographical information with open source weather-simulation models to identify instability.


Snook, an atmospheric scientist, used to check whether individual snowflakes were rounded—strengthening the overall integrity of the snowpack—or cup-shaped and dangerous. Now the forecasting team does that, and Snook’s data supplements their work to characterize avalanche danger. That’s no small feat for a continental snowpack that may be the most treacherous in North America. “We’re trying to see how the layers evolve over the winter and hopefully make more intelligent forecasts,” Snook says. Plus, it’ll be much easier on his back.



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