Air pollutants will likely become increasingly dangerous as temperatures continue to rise. (Image: Flickr/Senor Codo)
The dangers of a warming climate are frequently presented through an economic or an existential lens, either as a financial gamble whose costs may ultimately outweigh the short-term benefits, or a foreboding reflection of our unwise proclivity toward planetary engineering. But to Howard Frumkin, Dean and Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences at the University of Washington, it’s a lot more concrete than all that: climate change, he believes, is “the biggest health challenge in the coming century.”
In addition to anticipated death tolls from more frequent and more intense severe weather events, many chronic issues are coming to the fore. Air pollutants – most notably lung-busting ozone and particulates – increase with heightened temperatures. Ozone forms from nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons through atmospheric chemical reactions that speed up with heat, while particulates nucleate around liquid droplets and can penetrate deeply into the lungs. Both pollutants can cause problematic respiratory responses, and as Frumkin notes, “in the aggregate, the air quality in some areas rivals what you’d see being downwind from a big wildfire.”
Rapid warming impinges on the biosphere in complicated ways, and while the Anthropocene may well be causing the sixth extinction, it also is opening up new habitats to some species and altering the growth patterns of others. More abundant allergens were “something that nobody really expected,” says Frumkin, but pollen-generating plants like ragweed tend to do well in warmer, higher-CO2 conditions. Poison ivy also appears to be spreading, and its toxin becoming more virulent. Frumkin points to a somewhat paradoxical finding that even as plant growth increases with more carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere, the nutritional value of the resulting primary production is lowered. Flooded with carbon, crops can become deficient in other elements, resulting in a 10-20% decrease in protein levels and anemic iron and zinc concentrations.
Shifting biomes alter the ranges of infectious diseases. Tropical diseases are, after all, linked with warm, humid regions of the globe, and as such climate regimes spread toward higher latitudes, so too will associated vector-borne diseases like malaria, West Nile virus, or Chikungunya. (Some equatorial regions may experience more drought, which, though linked with its own set of challenges, would curtail mosquito growth and minimize tropical disease breeding grounds.)
Less reported but equally real, mental health could suffer for a number of direct and indirect reasons. Anxiety, depression, and PTSD can haunt victims of severe weather events for years: studies found that hundreds of thousands of people experienced such problems for years after hurricane Katrina. “In the aggregate,” explains Frumkin, “these mental health aspects can eclipse the acute injuries and fatalities” linked to extreme weather events. There also seem to be correlations between temperature and behavioral issues like impulse control or psychotropic medication side effects. Violence tends to spike with heat waves, and deaths linked to psychotropic drugs increase as body temperature regulation is short-circuited.
Despite the litany of dangers, Frumkin somehow manages to maintain glass-half-full optimism. “There’s a very good story here of co-benefits,” he explains. “The things that we have to do to tackle climate change and improve health go together, and don’t mean adopting miserable, deprived lifestyles at all.” For example, eating less meat minimizes a carbon-intensive form of food production and lowers risks associated with a high-meat diet. Greening cities reduces urban heat island effects and emissions, but also reduces stress. “Climate change is both a threat and very much an opportunity,” Frumkin maintains; “life could be better in a lot of ways.”
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