Image: michaelbay.com
Few holiday weekends mean as much to the film industry as July Fourth: the holy trifecta of summertime schedules, long weekends, and family togetherness has traditionally made it one of the prime box-office opportunities of the year. Yet, this weekend was…well, to say it was tepid is an understatement: the top 12 releases managed a cumulative domestic gross of just $120 million, down 46 percent from last year.
On the surface, the causes are obvious. First, the holiday landed on a Friday, shortening what’s typically at least a four-day release window in which studios can rake in the cash with stunts like Wednesday show times. Second, Hurricane Arthur rained fury down on the Northeast corridor. And third, there were no true tentpole movies. Yes, America loves Melissa McCarthy, but road tripping with her and Susan Sarandon in Tammy doesn’t quite fit the historical algorithm for Independence Day-levels of boffo box office. (And we’ll just leave Deliver Us From Evil alone, since that’s clearly a February release that lost its way.)
But that’s just looking at what happened on the weekend in question. And it’s only by looking at the previous weekend that tells you everything you need to know: Michael Bay tanked everyone else’s holiday weekend.
You can’t change the calendar, but you can sure as hell pick your release date based around it—and that’s exactly what Paramount did with Transformers: Age of Extinction, the latest installment of its multi-billion dollar mechanized workhorse. No matter how many rotten tomatoes you throw at Bay, the man still owns the July 4 money-printing machine. And when you own something you can do whatever you want with it—including ditch it for a pre-holiday release, and then watch your movie run roughshod over two straight weeks of box-office competition.
It’s not very American, but when no one wants to compete with you, you win by default—and why should any studio with half a braintrust in charge want to try? 2001’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon and the original 2007 Transformers in 2007 are the first and fourth biggest July 4 openings of all time. And even though Age of Extinction opted for a June 27th premiere, its second week take still claimed the top spot for the holiday weekend. Even a modest $37 million long weekend is still good enough to beat runner-up Tammy by a cool $16 million, and top the 17th highest-grossing Fourth of July release of all time (a little flick called Armageddon). In fact, three of Bay’s pictures are the holiday’s all-time top 20 list, more than any other single director. But that pales in comparison to how he runs the summer:
It’s not like Bay is impervious to flops, but even his second-worst performing movie, Pain and Gain, managed to double its budget and debut at number one. In fact, besides The Island, no Michael Bay directorial effort has debuted below the top spot, and the past two Transformers movies have retained that spot through their second weeks, with Age of Extinction making it a hat trick. Fox studios knew better than to compete, opting to forego the Fourth and roll out its much-anticipated Dawn of the Planet of the Apes on July 11th, giving Hasbro’s army a full two weeks to settle down before launching it’s own box office invasion.
What we witnessed during this holiday drought was a lesson being learned by major film distributors: as Michael Bay goes, so goes the nation. And if you’re going to map out your summer release schedule for maximum success, best to give a wide berth to the Optimus Prime (or, actually, Megatron) of tentpole movies. In an era when hundred-million-opening-or-bust is the measure of a movie’s success, it’s no wonder that every studio turned yellow at the specter of Bay—even if that means we the consumer get meager offerings as a result. So when Independence Day 2015 rolls around and you’re revving up for a long weekend of brews, BBQs, fireworks and multiplex fun, just hope that Bad Boys 3 announced a late June/early July release. Your pickings will likely be slim.
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