The Ambitious Windows 10 Is An Attack Disguised As a Retreat

Microsoft

From the early looks of Windows 10, it’s a long-overdue concession to the fact that Windows users prefer the way things used to be.

A video tour hosted by Windows VP Joe Belfiore is most notable for what Microsoft’s new OS is missing, as well as what’s returned from the pre-Windows 8 days. Rather than carrying on Windows 8’s strange hybrid of animated tiles and Start Menu-less desktop, Windows 10 has an interface more akin to that of Windows 7. Those colorful Metro tiles haven’t disappeared completely—they’ve been moved to the Start Menu—but they’re less in-your-face and mission-critical than they were in Windows 8.

Because of that, consumers and businesses are likely to be ecstatic. Neither of them liked Windows 8 much. The numbers don’t lie. According to Net Applications data, about half of the computers in the world right now are running Windows 7. In second place, with about a 24 percent install base, is the never-say-die Windows XP.

It’s 13 years old, and Microsoft doesn’t support it anymore. Windows 8 and Windows 8.1 combine for about half of XP’s install base, roughly 12 percent.

The world may be moving toward mobile devices en masse, but people still use laptops and desktops for good reasons: They remain the best tools for sitting down at a desk and working. Windows is best at its most boring, as a blank napkin for productivity. There’s nothing wrong with that; people need it. The less Windows feels like a laptop or desktop OS, the more people shun it.

Windows is best at its most boring, as a blank napkin for productivity.

But while Windows 10 is a step back for the interface, its underlying strategy is an ambitious leap forward. Under the hood, it’s a far bolder attempt to meet the needs of both desktop and mobile users than Windows 8′s hybrid weirdness. With Windows 10, Microsoft is trying to achieve several big goals at once: Make 75 percent of its desktop users finally consider an upgrade, attract more developers, and elevate its mobile OS beyond also-ran status.

Those last two are where Microsoft can gain the most ground. At its core, Windows 10 is an attempt to realize the dream of “write once, run anywhere” for Windows development. It promises the ability to write software that will magically morph to fit any phone, tablet, desktop, or other device. You won’t have to pick a way to interact with software, which was one of Windows 8’s fatal flaws. Instead, Windows 10 will pick the best software experience for your device.

That holds a lot of promise for a platform that has always been left wanting for mobile developers, as Windows 10 presents a way to attract them through the side door. With a 90-plus-percent market share, the Windows desktop is a hotbed for development. And now that Windows applications will purportedly adapt to any device, that 3-percent Windows Phone market share isn’t a massive obstacle for building up its app market.

The hardware is already solid. Windows Phone has a slick device in its smartphone stable in the HTC One M8. Nokia’s Windows Phones have incredible cameras. Microsoft’s Surface Pro 3 tablet is an outstanding piece of hardware. Add the ability to run a lot more software on those devices—an ecosystem that works seamlessly with Windows desktop environments at home and in the office—and you’ve got a platform that could make a sizeable dent in the Android/iOS duopoly. Maybe.

When he announced the first iPhone, Steve Jobs famously claimed that it “runs OS X.” It wasn’t true.

That “one adaptive OS” is a strategy also notable for how un-Apple it is. In a technology world where everyone seems to be following Apple’s lead, it’s something very different. Rather than creating distinct mobile and desktop environments that work more seamlessly together—the Continuity features in OS X Yosemite, for example—Microsoft is building a multi-device platform. A single OS that can run flawlessly on the various devices we use.

No one has really done that before, but the idea has certainly been paid lip service. When he announced the first iPhone, Steve Jobs famously claimed that it “runs OS X.” It wasn’t true. It didn’t matter, and most people would agree that the iPhone not running OS X was a major factor in its success. The mobile version of Windows 10 won’t need to replicate the functionality of a desktop OS. It will just need to run a lot more apps.

Most importantly, it’ll need to execute them well. Not many people wanted the hybrid desktop/touch OS of Windows 8. Likewise, they won’t want hybrid adaptive software that offers a crappy experience compared to true mobile apps. But Microsoft had to do something to boost its presence in the mobile OS market. It’s no sure thing, but Windows 10 may be the only way to do it.